One of the tenets of draft-day strategy is the growing myth regarding the propensity of wide receivers to emerge in their third season in the NFL. I needed to look to the past to recognize a pattern to this process and, of course, to prognosticate on the likelihood of this season's NFL junior class enjoying breakout performances. For the purpose of the study, I'm reviewing the careers of three Hall-of-Fame receivers and the rookie classes from 1999 to 2001 before gazing into a murky picture for 2004.
Let's start with the man himself, Jerry Rice. He owns enough records to open a separate wing at the Hall of Fame. Of course, if he continues to post near-1,000 yard seasons as he did in 2003, his enshrinement won't be for another 10 years. Rice had a tremendous rookie campaign for the 49ers in 1985 and bounced his production up to another level in his second season (86 catches, 1,570 yards and 15 TDs). Despite playing in only 12 games in 1987, Rice scored an astonishing 22 touchdowns en route to laying claim to the title of "greatest receiver of all-time."
Hall of Famer Steve Largent made his living catching balls in Seattle, hauling in darts from quarterbacks such as Jim Zorn and Dave Krieg. He had a fine rookie season of 54 catches and 4 touchdowns. He managed to find paydirt 10 times in his sophomore campaign despite having only 33 catches. In 1978, Largent's TD production fell by two, but he began his ascent to Canton by snagging 71 balls for over 1,100 yards.
For the final historical example, I need only look to the pages of Yahoo! Sports for a reminder of the brilliance of Cris Carter. As a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, Carter went from a non-factor in nine games as a rookie to posting solid numbers in his second season. However, in 1989 his career took off when he hauled in 45 receptions for 605 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.
1999 Rookie Class
David Boston, Arizona Cardinals: I know, you're saying, "what have you done for me lately?" He's been plagued by injuries and bad offenses for years, but in his third season in Arizona, Boston was a monster. While his TD total only increased by one over his 2002 output, he added more than 20 catches and 400 yards.
2001 season: 98 catches, 1,598 yards and 8 TDs
Peerless Price, Buffalo Bills: Price played well in spurts over his first two seasons, averaging 41 catches and 575 yards per campaign. But, in his third season, he began the surge that made him a highly sought after free agent and fantasy player when he nearly doubled his output. Fantasy owners are licking their chops to see he and Michael Vick hit the field together for a full season.
2001 season: 55 catches, 895 yards, 7 TDs
Marty Booker, Chicago Bears: In 2001, Booker was virtually unstoppable – at least in making the initial catch. After becoming a larger part of the Bears offense in 2000 (47 catches for 490 yards and two TDs), Booker elevated his game to another planet, hauling in 100 receptions. With a new offense installed in Chicago for '04, there's a chance that some of the magic that has alluded him the past couple years will be rekindled, but here's thinking that Justin Gage and a rejuvenated David Terrell steal some of Booker's thunder.
2001 season: 100 catches, 1,071 yards, 8 TDs
2000 Rookie Class
Laveranues Coles, New York Jets: Coles is an example of a player utilized in the red zone effectively as early as the second year of his career (59 catches, 868 yards and seven TD). But in 2002, Coles became a devastating receiver with the utilization of the screens, flat passes and his quick first step. Fantasy owners continue to celebrate the number of touches that Coles sees on a weekly basis – he's always a threat to go the distance.
2002 season: 89 catches, 1,264 yards and 5 TDs
Jerry Porter, Oakland Raiders: With the release of Tim Brown, the spotlight rests on the speedy Porter. He was virtually unused in his first two campaigns and then exploded in year three. We didn't get to see the encore due to injuries in 2003, but with a rebuilt offense and Norv Turner's love of the big fly, Porter owners will be dancing this fall. He's on target to produce a double-digit TD total in 2004.
2002 season: 52 catches, 688 yards and 9 TDs
Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh Steelers: In his third season, Burress enjoyed the best numbers of his NFL career. But he fell from grace in 2003 with a miserable effort. He's got all of the physical tools to rebound, but the questions about his focus remains. Hines Ward remains the man, but watch for more involvement from Burress in the red zone. The addition of Duce Staley will keep the offense in motion and serves as a decoy in the passing game which will force linebackers to cheat in coverage. Big play opportunities will exist for the lengthy, athletic Burress.
2002 season: 78 catches, 1,325 and 7 TDs
2001 Rookie Class
Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: Johnson had a good second year in Cincinnati, no question. But his 2003 campaign suddenly placed him in the discussions about the top five wideouts in the game. With Carson Palmer under center and the emergence of Kelley Washington as a third option, Johnson's gaudy receiving totals may take a hit. But he would still sit on a lofty perch.
2003 season: 90 catches, 1,355 yards and 10 TDs
Santana Moss, New York Jets; Moss showed glimpses of future stardom during the 2002 campaign. Though he caught only 30 passes and scored four touchdowns, he showed the speed and flash to be a playmaker. Even with Chad Pennington on the sideline for half of last season, Moss had his coming out party. Now with Justin McCareins in the mix (who himself rose from two touchdowns his second year to seven last season), the Jets offense will be clicking. Moss won't face as many double-teams, perhaps pushing his reception total toward triple digits.
2003 season: 74 catches, 1,105 yards and 10 TDs
Chris Chambers, Miami Dolphins: Ricky Williams accounted for a scary number of the Dolphins' touches in the last three seasons, but it's allowed Chambers to mature quietly into one of the game's best. And like most of the others that I have discussed, Chambers third season was easily his best as a pro. The loss of Williams will no doubt affect the flow of the offense and the continuing QB battle between A.J. Feeley and Jay Fiedler doesn't help matters either. With that said, Chambers has David Boston to help take some of the pressure off.
2003 season: 64 catches, 963 yards and 11 TDs
And now for the third-year candidates of 2004.
2002 Rookie Class
Javon Walker, Green Bay Packers: You're not gambling on the third-year hypothesis with Walker, his impending success is all but a given. Even with an injured Donald Driver and a rotation of other receivers, Walker responded with nine touchdowns in '03. He's a sure-fire double-digit TD producer in 2004, and will add the yardage to boot.
2003 season: 41 catches, 716 yards, 9 TDs
Donte Stallworth, New Orleans Saints: Stallworth was highly touted in 2003, and I'll plead guilty to having hyped him up. Granted, I couldn't foresee season-long hamstring battles, but he was inconsistent even when on the field. His ineffectiveness plagued the Saints offense and helped to keep Joe Horn mired in a big slump. Stallworth is healthy and ready to roll in 2004. With second-half star TE Boo Williams sure to draw attention and RB Deuce McAllister in the backfield, Stallworth will deliver the goods to get back his premier status. He has tremendous upside as a ninth-round fantasy selection.
2003 season: 25 catches, 485 yards, 3 TDs
Ashley Lelie, Denver Broncos: Many fantasy owners were burned by Lelie in the 2003 campaign. He appeared primed for a breakout season after a solid second half of his rookie campaign and a good training camp. Citing the third-year theory, a number of pundits are back on board with Lelie for the coming season. Darius Watts was drafted by the Broncos to compete for that job and Tim Brown's having tea with Mike Shanahan. I'll let Lelie pass.
2003 season: 37 catches, 628 yards, 2 TDs
Andre Davis, Cleveland Browns: Davis is the "Mr. Red Zone" of the Cleveland offense. In two seasons, Davis has a touchdown for every seven receptions. With Jeff Garcia entrenched as the starter in Cleveland, the wide receivers will finally work without a quarterback controversy. This continuity, coupled with a potentially dangerous duo at RB in Lee Suggs and William Green, means big things for the Cleveland offense.
2003 season: 40 catches, 576 yards, 5 TDs
Deion Branch, New England Patriots: Branch stands firm as the No. 1 option in New England heading into camp. I had a chance to watch a workout on Thursday morning and he and Tom Brady were clicking (more on my visit to Pats camp next week). The addition of Corey Dillon will open up more opportunities for Branch's speed to be utilized as a big-play option. Teammate David Givens (34 catches, 510 yards and 6 TDs) receives an honorable mention as a third-year man himself.
2003 season: 57 catches, 803 yards, 3 TDs
Antonio Bryant, Dallas Cowboys: Bryant is a man with all of the physical tools, but has begun to follow in the footsteps of Keyshawn "Just Give Me The Damn Ball" Johnson. It's somewhat funny that Johnson was brought in to help him mature. Bryant and Bill Parcells may never see eye-to-eye, but he is a big-play threat every down. He's good value in the later rounds of draft as he looks to rebound from a sub-par 2003.
2003 season: 39 catches, 550 yards, 2 TDs
These are but several examples over the years of players that took that next step to fantasy greatness in their third seasons. In the end, hindsight is always 20/20, but successful systems never lie. Keep an eye on the training camp news and injury reports for that next diamond in the rough.
